Data Dive 2- Faction vs Faction

August 6, 2016

This is the second in a series of articles taking a deeper look into the trends we saw over the course of the first London 40k GT (LGT).  Through these articles we’re going show readers how to make better decisions. The series will run right the way through to LGT2017 next year.


If you attended the LGT this year, you'll remember Tom as the ‘score guy’, enter Tom: 

This time we look at primary factions based on majority of points in the army. Remember this was a 2 source event and from our list analysis (coming soon) we know most allies were fairly small additions like a conclave, an assassin, an inquisitor or a knight in an Space Marine army, so the general gist of what you're looking at here is pretty fair representation of faction vs faction performance at the LGT. 


Here they are in all their glory. The win rates, and number of games, in all 5 rounds, and then the average win rate / total game count


A note on how to read these tables. You’ll see a table for each round of the tournament, followed by the summary table.


Where ‘no game’ is listed, it mean these factions did bot play each other in this round.


The % score in each cell represents the win rate of the faction. So a 66% win rate for Space marines vs Astra Militarum in round one means that the Space Marines won 2 out of the 3 games in round one where Space Marines were matched against Astra Militarum. The winner is on the right and the looser along the top. E.g Orks vs Space Marines = 0%, orks lost all games (surprise!) and Space Marine vs Orks = 100%, Marines won all games.


Round 1:

Round 2:

Round 3: 

Round 4:


Round 5:



This last table is not the average of all the win rate %'s. It takes the win rate in round 1, multiplied by the number of games in round 1 (to get a count of the wins), and then adds those up across the rounds and divided by the total number of games played. So this weights the win rate by the number of games played. 


(The maths: 0.5 and 0.9 averages to 0.7, but if 2 games made 0.5 and 10 games made 0.9, then the average win rate across 12 games was not 0.7., but 10/12)


To avoid annoying sample size 1 excitement, if only one game was played between the factions then it was omitted.




Given that the numbers speak for themselves, Lets just point out the interesting ones.

The good: 

Tau: Their most difficult match up are Space Marines, but still manage to average a 57% win rate (and given the number of Tau and SM armies, that is significant. Tau even won 63% of the time against Eldar. 

Eldar: Have one weakness, Tau. Only winning 34% of the time.

Knights: Are weak to SM and Mechanicum, interestingly. Given the prevalence of Eldar D, there must have been some strong Knight players in the field to pull out a 50/50 win rate against the space elves.

The Ugly 

Daemons, usually a strong performer have a really rough time. Not matching up well against the big 3 (Tau, Eldar & Marines) at all. 

Mission specific armies: 

Orks are extreme. They either dominate an army, or crumble badly. Orky randomness strikes again. Look at their summary, then look at their round 4 performance (the Relic). 


That’s all for now folks.




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